Hot topic: JPM 2026 – Deal or no deal – and does it matter?

JPM 2026 was touted as the event that would usher in the best year in biotech in a long time. 

But when it happened there was a distinct lack of mega-deals to shout about. 

The elephant, you might say, was not in the room. 

Does this bode ill for 2026? Or is news of such deals little more than grist to the media mill – just headline fodder? 

Optimum’s Hot Topic doesn’t pretend to have the answer to this perplexing question. 

But we can make a few observations. 

Firstly, there’s no doubt that big deals at JPM have become a yardstick for the outlook of the coming year. 

Cast your eyes back on media coverage of previous events and you can see this is a common theme. 

Secondly, there is little correlation between the number of such mega-deals being announced at JPM, and how the year subsequently panned out. 

Thirdly, biotech is just as prone to reading the tea leaves as any other industry sector: “The sun shone this year in San Francisco and the sky was blue, so this is going to be a great year for biotech.” 

‘21st century man’ is not really homo rationatus, despite what we might like to think about ourselves.  

Finally – as has been mentioned in trade press articles of this year’s event – perhaps the purpose of JPM is changing.  

If the lack of mega-deals means anything, maybe this is it. The focus at JPM appears to have shifted a little from the presentation of deals to the quiet construction of them behind the scenes. That would seem to bode well for the year ahead.  

Or are we just reading tea leaves? 

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